A NEW COLD WAR? WHY HAS THE UK INCREASED ITS DEFENSE BUDGET?
As It Has Been for Millennia: The Everlasting Human Drive for Power just as in the past, humanity today is driven by an insatiable desire to achieve greater capabilities and gains. The characteristics of military elements continue to be a fundamental determinant in securing economic, political, diplomatic, and cultural achievements. What sets today apart from the past is that, due to the cumulative nature of technology, we have reached capabilities that were previously unimaginable. Naturally, these capabilities have not been acquired by all states, nor is such a situation desired by all.
Nations are competing to ensure that their soldiers have access to the most advanced technologies and to inflict the greatest damage on rival assets at the lowest possible cost.
Dr. Alper Özbilen
The UK’s decision to expand its defense budget in November 2020 reflects its desire to secure a “better position” in this race.
What Happened?
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that if his government continued to limit the defense budget as previous British governments had done, the security of the British people would be at risk. He revealed that the defense budget would receive an additional £16.5 billion over the next four years. This decision raised the UK’s military spending to its highest level in 30 years. The defense budget previously set for the 2020-2021 fiscal year was approximately £41.5 billion.
What Led the British Government to Make This Decision?
According to a report prepared by the UK Ministry of Defence in 2017, the government, as the customer of the defense industry, has a responsibility to ensure that the armed forces have access to the right capabilities and that the goods and services purchased provide value for taxpayers’ money. The report also states that the strategic capacity of British industry and universities, strengthened by the defense ministry’s spending, makes the UK a significant industrial partner and helps sustain British “freedom of action,” international influence, and prosperity. Therefore, the UK does not evaluate the defense sector solely in terms of its contributions to the economy; the defense sector is also an element that defines the country’s international status.
As Johnson put it, the current international environment is more “dangerous” and “competitive” than it has been since the Cold War. Although Johnson did not specifically name any country, it is not difficult to guess which nations are seen as “threats” to the UK or are perceived by the UK as sources of “threats”: the immediate threat is Russia, and the relatively distant threat is China.
According to Ken McCallum, the head of the UK’s domestic intelligence service MI5, the country that currently poses the most “troubling” intelligence threat to the UK is Russia. The country that will present significant “opportunities” and “challenges” for the UK over the next decade is China. Thus, in addition to its traditional rival Russia, the UK will also have to contend with threats from China in the coming years.
As shown in Table 1, as of 2019, China’s military spending reached $261 billion, while Russia’s military spending reached $65 billion. These countries, which are considered a threat to the UK, have substantial military spending and modernization processes, causing concern in the UK.
As these “threat” elements grow stronger, the UK has also had to contend with uncertainties stemming from Brexit. It is believed that potential price increases and delays resulting from the post-Brexit process could negatively impact British defense sector contracts with EU countries. In this context, Paul Everitt, the president of ADS (an organization with more than 1,100 British companies operating in the defense, aerospace, and space sectors), also stated that they had to lower their targets and that their business would be subject to additional costs and complexities in the future. According to Everitt, this situation will have long-term effects on the competitiveness of firms in the sector.
Although the post-Brexit process has directed the British defense industry toward non-EU markets, the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing uncertainties.
The Covid-19 pandemic can be evaluated from many different angles. While various sectors have experienced different outcomes, the pandemic is currently damaging national economies through supply and demand disruptions caused by breakdowns in the global supply chain and changes in consumption habits. According to official data, in just the third quarter of 2020, 314,000 people were laid off in the UK.
This global crisis is highlighting the role of states in the economy. The sectors that receive state support during the rebuilding process are crucial for understanding future projections.
By increasing its defense budget, the UK government is not only supporting the defense sector, its workforce, and ultimately the British economy. In a traditional economic approach that assigns a limited role to the state, the government is using this opportunity created by the crisis to strengthen the UK’s international position.
Within the framework of Johnson’s statement, it can be inferred that the UK has two options: (1) It can ignore the threat of terrorism and the ambitions of enemy states until a “catastrophe” occurs, or (2) It can protect the UK’s “lifeline.” In other words, the increase in defense spending is directly necessary for the UK to continue its existence. The continuity of existence is a matter that is both local and international. Indeed, according to some experts, this decision is a sign that the UK has not separated from Europe’s defense even if it has left the EU. According to the US Department of Defense, this increase reflects the UK’s commitment to NATO and shared security. Additionally, this decision shows that more can and should be done in the face of evolving threats to “common freedoms and security.”
What will be achieved? Some key developments:
With the additional defense budget, the primary goal is to advance the construction of eight Type 26 and five Type 31 frigates. According to previously released information, Type 26 frigates will be used in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), air defense, and general-purpose operations, while Type 31 frigates will be used in general-purpose operations. Additionally, the new defense budget includes the development of next-generation warships, including multi-purpose research vessels and Type 32 frigates. Type 32 frigates, mentioned for the first time in Johnson’s statement, are expected to be a platform for autonomous systems.
It has been announced that the National Cyber Force has been established to conduct cyber operations to disrupt the UK’s “enemies” and keep the UK safe. The National Cyber Force brings together experts from GCHQ, the Ministry of Defense, MI6, and the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL).
Cyber operations can range from preventing the UK’s military aircraft from being targeted by enemy weapon systems to preventing cyber fraud. According to British authorities, the establishment of the National Cyber Force is a significant milestone, as cyberspace is expected to be the most contested domain where “allies” and “enemies” will converge over the next decade and beyond.
It has also been decided to establish an institution dedicated to artificial intelligence. Furthermore, the establishment of the Royal Air Force Space Command has been decided, with the launch of British satellites and rockets scheduled for 2022.
In conclusion, the UK has made an extraordinary increase in its defense budget to strengthen its position in its relationships with both “enemies” and “allies” in the current international environment, which it compares to the Cold War period.
Dr. Alper Özbilen
In a race fueled by the efforts of various countries, competition is intensifying to include domains such as space and cyberspace. This intensity repeatedly brings the following reality to our attention: We must strive to capture tomorrow, not just today. If we fail to worry about tomorrow in this race, we will lose both today and tomorrow. And the past will remain nothing more than a beautiful memory.
