THE NEW ASYMMETRIC POWER ELEMENT: SWARM DRONE TECHNOLOGY
Strategic technologies of the 21st century are the main pillar of national interests, and their absence is the primary reason for being left out of the game. Swarm drones, which are still in the developmental stage, should be evaluated within this context.
What Is Swarm Intelligence?
Swarm intelligence is an artificial intelligence discipline based on the behavior models of natural swarms like birds, bees, ants, and fish.
With millions of years of evolution, natural swarms have developed invaluable expertise in solving complex problems such as resource acquisition and survival. Swarm intelligence, which has attracted the interest of scientists from various fields, aims to harness this expertise for the benefit of humanity.
Swarm intelligence is not just a theoretical field but also a subject of commercial activities. By 2028, the global swarm intelligence market is expected to reach a level of $348.2 million.
Designing a single robot for complex tasks requires sophisticated structures and control modules, resulting in higher design, construction, and maintenance costs. Additionally, if complex tasks rely on a single robot, even minor damage to that robot could compromise the entire system. Instead, teams of robots working together—known as swarm robots—can solve specific problems more efficiently while offering robustness and flexibility.
Swarm drones are expected to be a significant driving force in the anticipated growth of the global swarm intelligence market. At this point, it’s essential to note the difference between autonomous swarm drones, developed using algorithms inspired by natural swarms, and drones controlled centrally. In the case of swarm intelligence, even if the swarm makes mistakes, it is expected to react and improve.
For drones to be scalable, they need to possess autonomous navigation capabilities. One of the fundamental challenges in this area is for drones within the swarm to detect each other. Relative positioning of drones allows for various capabilities, from collision prevention to high-level coordination. Moreover, the choice of design for relative positioning sensors affects the behaviors that the swarm can perform. For example, vision-based systems require drones to fly within the field of view of their cameras.
Swarm drones, which are expected to be robust, flexible, and scalable, offer various exploration and observation opportunities, such as tracking goods in warehouses, monitoring the growth of fruits and vegetables in greenhouses, and searching for foreign elements in territorial waters. For instance, the European Union has provided funding of €164,203.80 to develop swarm intelligence algorithms and data processing techniques for unmanned aerial vehicles to perform precise monitoring and detection in indoor and outdoor environments, focusing on civilian needs such as mining activities and human rescue.
Military Swarm Drones
In a 2005 report on unmanned aerial vehicles by the U.S. Department of Defense, it was predicted that the level of autonomous control in these vehicles would evolve from being remotely guided to fully autonomous swarms. The China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), known for its activities in swarm drones, has described “swarm intelligence” as central to the artificial intelligence of unmanned systems and the future of intelligent unmanned systems.
According to Indian sources, in 2021, a swarm of 75 drones from the Indian Army autonomously identified targets and neutralized them with kamikaze attacks. However, due to the technology still being in the development stage, sufficient information about the autonomy level of these 75 drones has not been shared with the public, as observed in the efforts of other countries.
In addition to the lack of information in current projects, there are also evaluations suggesting the existence of secret projects. For instance, based on satellite images that surfaced in December 2019, it is claimed that China has at least two small drone swarm groups whose details have not previously been disclosed.
What Will Military Swarm Drones Enable?
While it may initially be challenging to destroy armored vehicles with low-cost swarm drones, it will become possible to infiltrate the enemy’s support lines and target high-value points simultaneously. Equipping swarm drones with capabilities such as chemical, biological, and nuclear detectors, facial recognition technology, and anti-drone weapons will allow for combating a wide range of threats. It is also stated that swarm drones could undertake tasks such as identifying and destroying surface-to-air missiles and other air defense systems and could be used as a missile defense system.
The broad capabilities anticipated from swarm drones are perceived as a threat to rival forces’ efforts in the area. Indeed, U.S. experts view China’s efforts in this field as asymmetric warfare aimed at neutralizing the U.S.’s superiority regarding aircraft carriers.
According to data from the Centre for the Study of the Drone at Bard College, in 2010, only 60 countries had military UAVs in their inventory, but by 2019, 95 countries had such UAVs. While open-source records indicate that 21,000 military UAVs are in service for governments, it is estimated that this number likely exceeds 30,000. Teal Group predicts that the global annual value of military UAV production will rise from $5.6 billion in 2020 to $14 billion by 2029, with the total value over the decade reaching $95.5 billion.
The intense demand for unmanned aerial vehicles, which offer the possibility of conducting effective operations at low costs, and the challenges these vehicles pose for rival forces, will become even more pronounced with swarm drones as a new asymmetric power element.
The potential power of swarm drones raises ethical debates around the technology. Some civil society organizations call for a complete ban on autonomous weapons, arguing that they allow targets to be selected and engaged without human intervention. Some experts, however, perceive small, inexpensive autonomous drones as a greater threat than conventional military devices being made autonomous.
At this point, several questions arise:
- Can autonomous weapons distinguish between military personnel and civilians under combat conditions and neutralize target elements without harming civilians?
- Could a “rogue” state or terrorist group use drones as weapons of mass destruction by targeting specific segments of society, such as whites, blacks, or Asians?
- What level of autonomy could swarm drones achieve in the limitless possible conditions of military operations?
A Conclusion on Military Swarm Drones
Today, we are witnessing a transition period where systems are left to themselves to a certain extent and are becoming autonomous. Indeed, swarm drones are a combination of the strengths of humans, natural swarms, and machines.
The purpose that military swarm drones will serve is a result of the intentions of those who design them. Therefore, categorically considering military swarm drones as a threat to humanity is incorrect.
Since the era of agricultural societies, operations have been carried out with the understanding that everything is permissible for victory, but they have also been conducted without compromising war ethics, even at the expense of facing various difficulties. In this respect, military swarm drones could be designed as a means of massacre by certain elements. However, if the human factor assesses the issue with reason and conscience, and control mechanisms are established to address potential problems, military swarm drones will become a system that does not necessitate concern.
With the moral values inherited from its predecessors, our armed forces have made protecting the lives and property of civilians the top priority in all operations. Military swarm drones, designed and put into service by Turkish engineers and experts, will also be a result of this moral foundation.
