THE WAR THAT CHANGED MILITARY PARADIGMS: THE SECOND NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR
We are living in days when our advanced technologies are being transformed into historical achievements. With UAVs, armed drones, and other strategic technologies, Turkey has cleared itself of terrorist attacks, prevented being declared a “neighbor” of a terrorist organization, didn’t allow Libya to be ruled by a war criminal through force, and made valuable contributions to Azerbaijan’s liberation of Karabakh from occupation.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and Turkish Armed Drones
The success of Turkish armed drones in Syria and Libya was seen as a “threat” that couldn’t be fully assessed by Armenia at the beginning of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Neither Armenia nor other countries initially understood the game-changing capacity of UAVs. During the war, Azerbaijan, with possible advisory support from Turkey, effectively used UAVs. The impact created here showed the whole world that battlefields would no longer be the same.
Armenia’s UAV capabilities were quite limited. While it’s difficult to access precise information, experts believe that Armenia possessed indigenous drones like the Baze, Krunk 25-1, and Krunk 25-2, as well as the Russian-made Ptero-5E. However, these small UAVs with intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance features cannot be compared to Bayraktar TB2 armed drones.
Turkish F-16s acted as a deterrent alongside Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Armenia, as later admitted by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, didn’t even attempt to use the Su-30 fighter jets it purchased from Russia without missiles against Azerbaijan.
Pashinyan also confessed that the “Repellent” electronic warfare system, which Armenia bought from Russia in 2017 for $42 million, failed to protect the airspace, contrary to its intended purpose. The failure of Armenia’s electronic warfare capability, which is a significant factor in the success of UAVs and armed drones, was crucial for the course of the war.
Old Soviet systems like the 2K11 Krug, 9K33 Osa, 2K12 Kub, and 9K35 Strela-10, which formed an important part of Armenia’s air defense, could detect relatively small aircraft but couldn’t stop Turkish armed drones. Before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the S-300 missile systems, which were considered by Armenians as one of the main elements protecting their borders, had sensors developed to detect, identify, and track fast-moving targets. These moving-target indicators tended to overlook small and slow UAVs.
UAVs, which couldn’t be stopped by air defense systems, directly led to the downfall of these systems. Even when examining the situation specifically regarding the S-300s, it represented a significant disaster for Armenia. According to open-source information, the Azerbaijani army destroyed 7 S-300 air defense systems belonging to Armenia and rendered 1 S-300 radar and 2 S-300 detection stations inoperable.
As early as November 2018, there were public evaluations that the Pantsir S1 air defense system couldn’t detect low-speed and small-sized targets. However, Russia tried to preserve the reputation of these systems, which are of great importance for its arms exports.
According to information reflected in 2018, at a Russian arms fair, a poster claimed that various elements, including Heron (Israel), RQ-21A Blackjack (USA), and a Turkish-made UAV, were destroyed by Pantsirs in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that S-400 and Pantsir air defense systems, supported by fighter jets, guaranteed the superiority of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syrian airspace.
An article published by Russia Beyond in January 2018 noted that the Pantsir S1 air defense system shot down 3 of the 13 UAVs that attacked the Hmeimim Air Base in Syria and asked the public to “imagine” what this system, which could easily dismantle a fighter jet, could do to UAVs.
NATO’s Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC), assessing Turkey’s operation in Idlib, considered the Pantsir S1 air defense systems as serious threats to UAVs and targets that should be immediately neutralized. However, according to JAPCC, “due to intensive electronic warfare measures, the active system of Pantsir S-1 couldn’t detect the small and smart munitions fired by the Bayraktar TB2 UAV, even though they were within radar range.”
Based on publicly available footage and assessments, Turkish UAVs managed to destroy Pantsir S1 air defense systems in different regions. In the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Pantsir S1 air defense systems were also destroyed by drones controlled by Azerbaijan. Therefore, the Pantsir S1 air defense system, which was considered effective against UAVs and could easily dismantle a fighter jet, was neutralized by relatively low-cost UAVs that it couldn’t detect. In short, the hunters became the hunted.
According to an article in Russia Beyond, the barrels of Pantsir S1, with a firing rate of 5,000 rounds per minute, must be replaced after every 8,000 rounds. Therefore, in addition to being included in the inventory, the operation of this system also entails various costs.
It has been widely reported that Turkish armed drones destroyed dozens of air defense systems and components in Syria, Libya, and Karabakh. According to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, over $1 billion worth of Armenian munitions were destroyed by Turkish armed drones during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. The total value of destroyed and captured weapons during the 44-day war is estimated to be $4.8 billion.
While the risks to valuable human resources were minimized, ground forces were protected from air attacks and potential attacks on military targets on the ground. Enemy elements were rendered “unable to fight” in certain areas through cost-effective operations.
The repeated success of UAVs and armed drones in destroying different air defense systems has led to questioning the effectiveness of air defense systems against modern threats. The fact that millions of dollars worth of air defense systems, which were obtained after a long process and considered a source of economic and diplomatic power by their producing countries, were neutralized by low-cost, expendable systems has heightened the importance of this questioning.
For a long time, it was predicted that unmanned systems would change military paradigms on land, sea, and air. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, in which existing military paradigms were indisputably shaken through UAVs and armed drones, can be considered the first clear example of the expected paradigm shift. In this respect, it is historically significant from a military perspective.
Likely to be evaluated in the literature in the context of shaking conventional military systems and operational concepts, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War holds a special spiritual significance for the Azerbaijani Turks and the Turkish world.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region, where Azerbaijani Turks were massacred with various tortures, regardless of age, and forced to leave their homes, remained one of the deepest wounds in the heart of the Turkish world for years. Twenty percent of Azerbaijan’s territory was under Armenian occupation. This illegal occupation was stopped during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which began on September 27, 2020.
Thanks to the game-changing power of advanced technologies, especially Turkish armed drones, Azerbaijan regained its lands after nearly 30 years of longing. Despite spending millions of dollars, Armenia was left out of the game with its ineffective military equipment and systems.
Azerbaijan raised its flag in Karabakh… The ruthless hunters of yesterday have become the prey today; Karabakh, the land of the Turks, is now free.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYIt6HMKjps
